Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Storms on Manhattan

Introduction

Throughout the twentieth century, the rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion, and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors. According to the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007), coastal areas will be even more vulnerable in the near future, with continuing rise in sea level, more frequent and larger storms, increased storm surges, and more.

One influential and densely populated city in the North American coastal zone is New York City, with a population of nearly 8.5 million. Surrounded by water and experiencing a major hurricane about every 75 years (Naparstek 2005), the city has cause for alarm.

In 1893, a hurricane devastated New York City. What would be the impact of a major hurricane today?

Further, what does a projected continuing rise in sea level mean to a city whose highest point is 265.5 feet above sea level? How much of one borough, Manhattan, could be underwater in the year 2100 due strictly to rising sea levels?

Location

Manhattan or New York County, New York, USA

Time to complete the lab

45 minutes

Prerequisites

Intermediate to advanced GIS experience

Data used in this lab

Data source: US Geological Survey national map server at http://cumulus.cr.usgs.gov/webappcontent/neddownloadtool/NEDDownloadToolDMS.html (unprojected file)

Provided file Manh_outline (the boundary for the county of New York) originally downloaded from the US Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/geo/www/cob/co2000.html; file then projected to universal transverse Mercator (UTM) NAD 1983 Zone 18N and clipped to New York County (FIPS = '061')